Rest of Season Projection
ColtonCategoryTristan
11HR ←6
38R ←35
40RBI ←27
2SB →8
.202AVG →.248
Current Season
ColtonCategoryTristan
4HR ←2
17R →18
18RBI ←14
1SB →4
.227AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colton Cowser
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.300)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Colton Cowser: 11 HR / 38 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).