Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryKyle
31K →33
3.70ERA ←3.73
1.24WHIP ←1.29
1–3W1–2
0SV →1–2
Current Season
ConnorCategoryKyle
15K →16
3.12ERA →1.93
1.38WHIP ←1.54
1W1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Seabold
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Kyle Finnegan
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.15 is 2.27 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Connor Seabold: 31 K / 3.70 ERA. Kyle Finnegan: 33 K / 3.73 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).