Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryJoe
5HR →6
27R ←25
34RBI ←21
3SB ←0
.228AVG ←.203
Current Season
ConnorCategoryJoe
0HR0
8R ←7
10RBI ←6
1SB ←0
.258AVG ←.209
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Wong
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.347 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.286 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
Joe Mack
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.239)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Connor Wong: 5 HR / 27 R. Joe Mack: 6 HR / 25 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).