Rest of Season Projection
DavidCategoryPJ
35K ←29
3.70ERA ←3.82
1.24WHIP ←1.27
2–6W3–6
0SV →2–4
Current Season
DavidCategoryPJ
17K →18
5.28ERA →3.20
1.89WHIP →1.46
2W →3
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
David Morgan
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 sits 0.62 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.404 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
PJ Poulin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.14 is 2.94 above the ERA — regression coming
David Morgan: 35 K / 3.70 ERA. PJ Poulin: 29 K / 3.82 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).