MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 11, 2026
Portrait of Derek Hill
Derek Hill
PHI · RF
Change to
Nathan Church
STL · LF
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Nathan Church.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — runs, RBI, and average.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Nathan Church wins 3 categories (R, RBI, AVG); Derek Hill wins 1 (SB); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Derek Hill
89.7
Nathan Church
85.9
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Derek Hill
33.8%
Nathan Church
32.0%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Derek Hill
10.4%
Nathan Church
8.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Derek Hill
34.3%
Nathan Church
45.1%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Derek Hill
18.0%
Nathan Church
13.3%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Derek Hill
.293
Nathan Church
.284
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Derek Hill
.200.280
lg AVG .295
now .234
.214
Nathan Church
.200.280
lg AVG .295
now .260
.225

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Derek Hill
56.20
now 3
4
Nathan Church
56.20
now 5
4
Runshigher is better
Derek Hill
2025.80
now 9
18
Nathan Church
2025.80
now 18
21
RBIhigher is better
Derek Hill
2027
now 6
12
Nathan Church
2027
now 18
21
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Derek Hill
.80015.20
now 6
12
Nathan Church
.80015.20
now 4
5
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeDerek Hill — hold.conf 0.50
SellNathan Church — sell.conf 0.61
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