Rest of Season Projection
DerekCategoryTristan
7HR ←6
29R →35
20RBI →27
20SB ←8
.208AVG →.248
Current Season
DerekCategoryTristan
3HR ←2
9R →18
6RBI →14
6SB ←4
.234AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Derek Hill
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.296)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Derek Hill: 7 HR / 29 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).