Rest of Season Projection
ErikCategoryJosé
55K ←45
3.69ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W ←1–3
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ErikCategoryJosé
39K ←26
1.71ERA ←5.59
0.95WHIP ←1.81
2W ←1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Erik Sabrowski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.46 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
José Alvarado
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.44 sits 0.66 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.424 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Erik Sabrowski: 56 K / 3.69 ERA. José Alvarado: 46 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).