Rest of Season Projection
GabeCategoryPJ
38K ←29
3.70ERA ←3.82
1.24WHIP ←1.27
1–3W →3–6
1–4SV →2–3
Current Season
GabeCategoryPJ
16K →18
2.45ERA ←3.20
1.30WHIP ←1.46
1W →3
1SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gabe Speier
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.90)
PJ Poulin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.09 is 2.81 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Gabe Speier: 38 K / 3.70 ERA. PJ Poulin: 29 K / 3.82 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).