Rest of Season Projection
HenryCategoryJustin
4HR ←3
15R →22
15RBI →19
15SB ←11
.221AVG →.225
Current Season
HenryCategoryJustin
0HR →2
4R →14
4RBI →12
4SB →7
.288AVG ←.234
What Each Player's System Trusts
Henry Bolte
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.444 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.281 is 0.069 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Justin Crawford
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.263 below league with no luck excuse
Henry Bolte: 4 HR / 15 R. Justin Crawford: 3 HR / 22 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).