Rest of Season Projection
JackCategoryJoel
40K ←26
3.68ERA ←3.73
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–5W ←1–2
0SV →5–8
Current Season
JackCategoryJoel
24K ←13
2.78ERA ←3.04
1.01WHIP ←1.18
2W ←1
0SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jack Dreyer
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.98)
Joel Kuhnel
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.56 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jack Dreyer: 40 K / 3.68 ERA. Joel Kuhnel: 26 K / 3.73 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).