Rest of Season Projection
JalenCategoryTyler
28K ←23
3.76ERA →3.61
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–4W ←1–2
0SV →2–3
Current Season
JalenCategoryTyler
18K ←16
3.86ERA →2.36
1.37WHIP →1.13
2W ←1
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jalen Beeks
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.57)
Tyler Rogers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.26 is 0.35 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jalen Beeks: 28 K / 3.76 ERA. Tyler Rogers: 23 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).