Rest of Season Projection
JoséCategoryLucas
114K ←48
4.15ERA →4.10
1.37WHIP →1.30
5–12W →7–15
0SV0
Current Season
JoséCategoryLucas
85K ←6
2.72ERA ←4.97
1.21WHIP ←1.74
6W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
José Soriano
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.17 is 1.21 above the ERA — regression coming
Lucas Giolito
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.14)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
José Soriano: 114 K / 4.15 ERA. Lucas Giolito: 48 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).