MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · July 31, 2026
Portrait of Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito
SD · P
Change to
Portrait of Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti
HOU · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Lucas Giolito wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); Spencer Arrighetti wins 2 (K, W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
90.8
Spencer Arrighetti
92.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
9.8%
Spencer Arrighetti
10.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
13.0%
Spencer Arrighetti
22.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
19.0%
Spencer Arrighetti
26.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
43.8%
Spencer Arrighetti
30.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
4.2%
Spencer Arrighetti
7.7%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
.357
Spencer Arrighetti
.345
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Lucas Giolito
26.42
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.97
4.10
Spencer Arrighetti
26.42
lg xERA 4.10
now 1.34
4.76
WHIPlower is better
Lucas Giolito
.9001.98
now 1.74
1.30
Spencer Arrighetti
.9001.98
now 1.13
1.43

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Lucas Giolito
4057.80
now 6
25
Spencer Arrighetti
4057.80
now 43
42
Winshigher is better
Lucas Giolito
.00011.80
now 2
48
Spencer Arrighetti
.00011.80
now 7
49

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeLucas Giolito — hold.conf 0.50
Sell HighSpencer Arrighetti — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.85
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