Rest of Season Projection
LucasCategorySpencer
49K →95
4.10ERA ←4.67
1.30WHIP ←1.43
7–15W →9–20
0SV0
Current Season
LucasCategorySpencer
6K →43
4.97ERA →1.34
1.74WHIP →1.13
2W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Lucas Giolito
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.14)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.97 is 3.03 above the ERA — regression coming
Lucas Giolito: 49 K / 4.10 ERA. Spencer Arrighetti: 95 K / 4.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).