MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
Portrait of Kevin Kelly
Kevin Kelly
TB · P
Change to
Portrait of Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22, 1 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Kevin Kelly wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); Riley O'Brien wins 2 (K, SV); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Kevin Kelly
93.1
Riley O'Brien
97.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Kevin Kelly
10.5%
Riley O'Brien
11.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Kevin Kelly
21.4%
Riley O'Brien
22.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Kevin Kelly
33.0%
Riley O'Brien
28.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Kevin Kelly
45.7%
Riley O'Brien
41.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Kevin Kelly
6.0%
Riley O'Brien
7.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Kevin Kelly
.296
Riley O'Brien
.343
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Kevin Kelly
25.34
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.67
3.66
Riley O'Brien
25.34
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.20
4.58
WHIPlower is better
Kevin Kelly
.9001.58
now 0.81
1.13
Riley O'Brien
.9001.58
now 0.99
1.36

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Kevin Kelly
4036.60
now 19
3
Riley O'Brien
4036.60
now 27
5
Winshigher is better
Kevin Kelly
.0004.20
now 3
01
Riley O'Brien
.0004.20
now 3
01
Saveshigher is better
Kevin Kelly
.00019.60
now 2
01
Riley O'Brien
.00019.60
now 14
23
If you already own them — trade angle
Sell HighKevin Kelly — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
SellRiley O'Brien — sell.conf 0.84
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