Rest of Season Projection
LawrenceCategoryOwen
9HR9
32R →33
27RBI →58
8SB ←6
.224AVG ←.189
Current Season
LawrenceCategoryOwen
3HR →5
17R17
14RBI →30
4SB ←3
.164AVG →.234
What Each Player's System Trusts
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.210 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Owen Caissie
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.283 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 40% is stable and high — caps the floor
Lawrence Butler: 9 HR / 32 R. Owen Caissie: 9 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).