Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryTravis
10HR ←5
35R ←32
34RBI ←27
11SB →19
.214AVG →.249
Current Season
MattCategoryTravis
5HR ←3
22R ←13
21RBI ←11
7SB →8
.198AVG →.294
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt McLain
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.307)
Travis Bazzana
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.349 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.328 is 0.040 below the surface — regression coming
Matt McLain: 10 HR / 35 R. Travis Bazzana: 5 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).