MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 10, 2026
Matt Svanson
STL · P
Change to
Ryan Gusto
MIA · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Ryan Gusto.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Matt Svanson’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Ryan Gusto wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Matt Svanson wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Matt Svanson
97.0
Ryan Gusto
93.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Matt Svanson
9.4%
Ryan Gusto
9.9%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Matt Svanson
21.5%
Ryan Gusto
19.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Matt Svanson
24.5%
Ryan Gusto
29.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Matt Svanson
45.5%
Ryan Gusto
45.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Matt Svanson
7.4%
Ryan Gusto
9.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Matt Svanson
.365
Ryan Gusto
.358
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Matt Svanson
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.77
3.81
Ryan Gusto
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 9.00
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Matt Svanson
.9602.23
now 1.95
1.25
Ryan Gusto
.9602.23
now 1.67
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Matt Svanson
4043.20
now 26
28
Ryan Gusto
4043.20
now 4
32
Winshigher is better
Matt Svanson
.0001.48
now 1
11
Ryan Gusto
.0001.48
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeMatt Svanson — hold.conf 0.55
Hold · wait & seeRyan Gusto — hold.conf 0.50
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