Rest of Season Projection
MichaelCategoryStephen
110K ←60
3.98ERA ←4.02
1.35WHIP →1.30
4–9W →6–13
0SV0
Current Season
MichaelCategoryStephen
65K ←19
3.18ERA ←3.48
1.13WHIP →0.94
4W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Michael King
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.98 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
Stephen Kolek
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.31)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Michael King: 110 K / 3.98 ERA. Stephen Kolek: 60 K / 4.02 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).