MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 29, 2026
Portrait of Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
PIT · P
Change to
Portrait of Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Zebby Matthews.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Mitch Keller’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Zebby Matthews wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Mitch Keller wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Mitch Keller
93.4
Zebby Matthews
95.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Mitch Keller
9.8%
Zebby Matthews
10.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Mitch Keller
17.9%
Zebby Matthews
18.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Mitch Keller
30.0%
Zebby Matthews
27.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Mitch Keller
42.1%
Zebby Matthews
37.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Mitch Keller
6.8%
Zebby Matthews
12.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Mitch Keller
.345
Zebby Matthews
.334
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Mitch Keller
4.134.99
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.35
4.77
Zebby Matthews
4.134.99
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.63
4.54
WHIPlower is better
Mitch Keller
.9001.49
now 1.17
1.36
Zebby Matthews
.9001.49
now 1.03
1.34

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Mitch Keller
4061.80
now 51
39
Zebby Matthews
4061.80
now 24
49
Winshigher is better
Mitch Keller
.0006.60
now 5
25
Zebby Matthews
.0006.60
now 1
13

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellMitch Keller — sell.conf 0.86
SellZebby Matthews — sell.conf 0.75
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