Rest of Season Projection
PeytonCategoryTim
41K ←23
3.70ERA ←3.72
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
PeytonCategoryTim
18K ←11
3.57ERA ←4.03
1.30WHIP →1.21
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Peyton Gray
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.96 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Tim Hill
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.55)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Peyton Gray: 41 K / 3.70 ERA. Tim Hill: 23 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).