Rest of Season Projection
ReynaldoCategoryTim
55K ←25
3.85ERA →3.71
1.27WHIP →1.24
2–5W →2–6
0SV0
Current Season
ReynaldoCategoryTim
31K ←11
3.31ERA ←4.03
1.33WHIP →1.21
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Reynaldo López
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.78 is 1.47 above the ERA — regression coming
Tim Hill
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.32)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Reynaldo López: 55 K / 3.85 ERA. Tim Hill: 25 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).