Rest of Season Projection
SamCategorySean
36K →61
3.70ERA ←3.78
1.25WHIP ←1.26
1–2W ←0–0
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
SamCategorySean
26K →42
2.49ERA ←5.08
1.07WHIP ←1.46
1W ←0
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Sam Moll
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 is 0.89 above the ERA — regression coming
Sean Manaea
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.19 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Sam Moll: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Sean Manaea: 62 K / 3.78 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).