week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Sam Moll
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 22WHIP 1.25ERA 3.72W 0–1SV 0–2
Moll is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 22 ROS, WHIP 1.07 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.7%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~11.0% career norm
- Strikeout %25.1%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
171 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
171 / 200 TBF
ERA4.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
171 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
171 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
171 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
171 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
707 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.1%→24.9%signal22 K — K% 25.1% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 24.9% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 4.16noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.16 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 11.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-2 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.