MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sam Moll
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Sam Moll

CIN·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Moll is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.85

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.217 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.25 is 0.76 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.6%
30.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL62 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.8%
4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028too early to trust
NOISE104 / 200 TBF
xERA3.25
3.25
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.85too early to trust
NOISE104 / 200 TBF
ERA2.49
2.49
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.61too early to trust
NOISE25.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
25.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL104 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%too early to trust
NOISE104 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.217
.217
lg avg .295 ▼−.078too early to trust
NOISE62 / 800 BIP