MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chris Martin
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Chris Martin

TEX·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.420 elevated and unstable, the 9.00 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 7.62 is +3.52 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0

Martin is a hold — ugly ERA hides no buy signal.

Chris Martin's 9.00 ERA looks brutal, and it is partly a BABIP trick — his BABIP-against is .420, 125 points above league average, with only 54 balls in play. BABIP-against needs around 800 to be reliable, so the ERA overstates the damage. But the regression target is not a buy signal either. His xERA is 7.62, 3.52 runs above league average, and xERA needs 200 TBF to stabilize; he has 66. Hard-hit rate allowed is 44.4%, above league, and his swinging-strike rate is 8.5% — below league. Limited data: this call rests on the first unstable sample of the season. Hold. 16 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 1-2 W / 0 SV make him a deep-league hold; the whiff rates don't support a pickup.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.420 elevated and unstable — the 9.00 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 7.62 is +3.52 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%
44.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.408
.408*
lg avg .315 ▲+.093vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 200 TBF
xERA7.62
7.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.52vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 200 TBF
ERA9.00
9.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
14 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.6%
norm13.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.4%vs his norm −11.3% ▼Strikeout % is below his ~24.9% norm — expect it to rise.
66 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.0%
norm3.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm −0.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~3.4% norm — expect it to rise.
66 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.420
.420*
lg avg .295 ▲+.125vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
66 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
66 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
248 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.6%→22.1%noise16 K — K% 13.6% (noise) lifted to career ~24.9% → projected 22.1% over ~15 remaining IP.
xERA 7.62noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.62 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 3.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 3% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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