week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Germán Márquez
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.69); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 64ERA 4.24WHIP 1.32W 5–11SV 0
Márquez is a hold — league-average stuff with a strikeout drag.
ROS projects K 19 YTD → 64 ROS, ERA 5.76 YTD → 4.24 ROS, WHIP 1.45 YTD → 1.32 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.8%—−6.8% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.69)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.367
lg avg .315 ▲+.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 200 TBF
xERA5.69
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.59vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 200 TBF
ERA5.76
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.66vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm −6.8% ▼
128 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +2.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.3% norm — expect it to fall.
128 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.8%→19.0%signal64 K — K% 14.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 19.0% over ~78 remaining IP.
xERA 5.69noise4.24 ERA — xERA 5.69 (noise) blended 9% skill / 91% league 4.10 at 30 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactnoise1.32 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 9%…
run support + role5-11 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop64 K ROS, 4.24 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.