week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Germán Márquez
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.58 is 0.41 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 31ERA 5.06WHIP 1.45W 3–6SV 0
Márquez is a sell-high — ERA hides a rising xERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.1%—−5.5% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
- Walk %10.4%—+3.1% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.58 is 0.41 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.359
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
xERA5.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.48vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
ERA5.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −5.5% ▼
211 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +3.1% ▲
211 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
820 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.1%→18.8%signal31 K — K% 16.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 18.8% over ~41 remaining IP.
xERA 5.58signal5.06 ERA — xERA 5.58 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 30 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.45 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop31 K ROS, 5.06 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.