MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Iván Herrera
651 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Iván Herrera

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .235HR 1R 6RBI 5SB 0

Herrera is a buy — the bat has earned the line.

Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.5%−4.8%vs his ~10.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.3 mphvs his norm —
436 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.7%
40.7%*
lg avg 40.0% +0.7%vs his norm —
436 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% −2.5%vs his norm −4.8%
436 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.333
.333*
lg avg .315 +.018vs his norm —
651 / 160 PA
wOBA.335
.335*
lg avg .315 +.020vs his norm —
651 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.1%
18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% −3.9%vs his norm —
651 / 60 PA
Walk %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 8.5% +2.3%vs his norm —
651 / 120 PA
BABIP.290
norm.290*
lg avg .295 −.005vs his norm −.050 BABIP is below his ~.340 normexpect it to rise.
436 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 11.0% −2.0%vs his norm —
651 / 50 PA
Chase %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 28.5% −0.1%vs his norm —
651 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.5%→7.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 5.5% (signal) lifted to career ~10.3% → projected 7.0%.
BABIP 0.290→0.283 regressednoise.235 AVG — BABIP 0.290 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.275 (xBA 0.251) → 0.283.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~45 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~45 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 58 G) over ~45 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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