423 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Iván Herrera
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.345, +0.030 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .234R 27RBI 21SB 2
Herrera is a buy — elite plate discipline, confirmed contact quality.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.7%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.345, +0.030 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
280 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
280 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
280 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.345
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —
423 / 160 PA
wOBA.347
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —
423 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
423 / 60 PA
Walk %12.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
423 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm −.061 ▼BABIP is below his ~.340 norm — expect it to rise.
280 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
423 / 50 PA
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
423 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.7%→7.6%signal4 HR — Barrel% 5.7% (signal) lifted to career ~10.3% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.279→0.274 regressednoise.234 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.248) → 0.274.
on-base + lineup27 R — his run rate over ~202 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~202 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 58 G) over ~202 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.