
651 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Iván Herrera
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .235HR 1R 6RBI 5SB 0
Herrera is a buy — the bat has earned the line.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.5%—−4.8% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
436 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
436 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −4.8% ▼
436 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.333
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
651 / 160 PA
wOBA.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
651 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
651 / 60 PA
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
651 / 120 PA
BABIP.290
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm −.050 ▼BABIP is below his ~.340 norm — expect it to rise.
436 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
651 / 50 PA
Chase %28.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
651 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.5%→7.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 5.5% (signal) lifted to career ~10.3% → projected 7.0%.
BABIP 0.290→0.283 regressednoise.235 AVG — BABIP 0.290 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.275 (xBA 0.251) → 0.283.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~45 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~45 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 58 G) over ~45 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.