MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Iván Herrera
717 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Iván Herrera

STL·DH
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.336, +0.021 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Herrera is a buy — his expected wOBA is earned, and climbing.

His hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample and now sits at 40.6%, on 472 batted balls — well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. The expected wOBA tells the same story: .336 against a league average of .315, and that number is also trending upward. His actual wOBA is .329, just under expected, so nothing in his line is being propped up by batted-ball luck. The plate discipline backs it: a 19.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate are both better than league average, and a 9.2% swinging-strike rate is well below it. This is a hitter whose swing decisions and contact quality are moving in the same direction at once. That is not a hot streak. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.1%—−4.2% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.336, +0.021 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.4 mph
89.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
472 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.6%
40.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
472 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.1%
norm6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −4.2% ▼
472 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
717 / 160 PA
wOBA.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
717 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.2%
19.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
717 / 60 PA
Walk %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
717 / 120 PA
BABIP.280
norm.280*
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm −.060 ▼BABIP is below his ~.340 norm — expect it to rise.
472 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
717 / 50 PA
Chase %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
717 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.1%→7.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.1% (signal) lifted to career ~10.3% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.280→0.277 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.280 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.272 (xBA 0.249) → 0.277.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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