Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryIván
8HR →12
53R ←52
45RBI ←40
8SB ←3
.210AVG →.263
Current Season
ChristianCategoryIván
4HR →7
21R →35
18RBI →27
3SB ←2
.275AVG ←.260
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Iván Herrera
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.366, +0.051 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Iván Herrera: 12 HR / 52 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).