MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Josh Bell
631 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL

Josh Bell

MIN·DH
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.335, +0.020 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bell is a buy — the contact is climbing and the results are earned.

His hard-hit rate is 42.0%, two points above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His average exit velocity is 89.9 mph against a league mark of 89.0, and with 450 batted balls that number is well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. The expected wOBA paints the same picture: .335, twenty points above league average and trending upward. His actual wOBA is .323, a touch below his expected mark, so the opposite of a luck problem is happening here. He strikes out 19.7% of the time, better than league average, and his walk rate is right at league. The contact gains are real and the production is following them. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.6%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~9.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.335, +0.020 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
89.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
450 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.0%
42.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
450 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.6%
norm9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
450 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.335
.335*
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
631 / 160 PA
wOBA.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
631 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.7%
19.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
631 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
631 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
norm.289*
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm +.010 ▲BABIP is above his ~.279 norm — expect it to fall.
450 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
631 / 50 PA
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
631 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.6%→9.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.6% (signal) held to career ~9.8% → projected 9.7%.
BABIP 0.289→0.300 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.314 (xBA 0.256) → 0.300.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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