week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Strahm
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.90); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 27ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Strahm is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 27 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.6%—−9.6% ▼vs his ~27.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.90)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA3.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA7.18
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.08vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −9.6% ▼
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +2.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.1% norm — expect it to fall.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
550 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→23.2%signal27 K — K% 17.6% (signal) lifted to career ~27.2% → projected 23.2% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 3.90noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.90 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.