Rest of Season Projection
A.J.CategoryRyan
6HR ←4
25R ←23
19RBI →51
13SB ←5
.251AVG ←.238
Current Season
A.J.CategoryRyan
1HR →3
8R →9
6RBI →20
4SB ←2
.224AVG →.278
What Each Player's System Trusts
A.J. Ewing
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.335)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Ryan Vilade
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.338 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.309 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
A.J. Ewing: 6 HR / 26 R. Ryan Vilade: 4 HR / 23 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).