MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Zac Thornton
NYM · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Zac Thornton.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Aaron Civale’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Zac Thornton wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Aaron Civale wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.4
Zac Thornton
92.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.1%
Zac Thornton
10.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
16.9%
Zac Thornton
19.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.2%
Zac Thornton
31.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
46.2%
Zac Thornton
37.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
10.2%
Zac Thornton
12.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.350
Zac Thornton
.317
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.795.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.87
Zac Thornton
3.795.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.35
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.041.59
now 1.47
1.41
Zac Thornton
1.041.59
now 1.16
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4054.80
now 39
39
Zac Thornton
4054.80
now 10
42
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0008.40
now 5
36
Zac Thornton
.0008.40
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.90
Sell HighZac Thornton — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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