Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryJarren
21HR ←11
55R ←40
49RBI ←45
6SB →14
.248AVG ←.212
Current Season
AaronCategoryJarren
17HR ←10
43R ←29
38RBI ←33
5SB →10
.248AVG ←.219
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Judge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Aaron Judge: 21 HR / 55 R. Jarren Duran: 11 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).