Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryBen
7HR →20
20R →70
45RBI →70
0SB →3
.184AVG →.270
Current Season
AdrianCategoryBen
4HR →17
9R →44
20RBI →44
0SB →2
.192AVG →.306
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Del Castillo
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.260)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Adrian Del Castillo: 7 HR / 20 R. Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).