Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryPaul
73K →126
5.12ERA →2.28
1.45WHIP →1.04
2–5W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
AdrianCategoryPaul
35K →75
5.59ERA →2.89
1.56WHIP →0.86
2W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Houser
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.67 +1.57 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Adrian Houser: 73 K / 5.12 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).