MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
AJ Smith-Shawver
ATL · P
Change to
Portrait of Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

AJ Smith-Shawver.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Zebby Matthews’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

AJ Smith-Shawver wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Zebby Matthews wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
96.0
Zebby Matthews
95.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
11.5%
Zebby Matthews
10.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
17.5%
Zebby Matthews
19.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
28.9%
Zebby Matthews
27.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
38.0%
Zebby Matthews
41.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
8.5%
Zebby Matthews
11.1%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
AJ Smith-Shawver
.336
Zebby Matthews
.330
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
AJ Smith-Shawver
3.884.85
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.15
4.10
Zebby Matthews
3.884.85
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.63
4.45
WHIPlower is better
AJ Smith-Shawver
.9001.52
now 1.38
1.30
Zebby Matthews
.9001.52
now 1.03
1.31

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
AJ Smith-Shawver
4032
now 4
10
Zebby Matthews
4032
now 24
12
Winshigher is better
AJ Smith-Shawver
.0001.48
now 0
00
Zebby Matthews
.0001.48
now 1
01

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeAJ Smith-Shawver — hold.conf 0.50
SellZebby Matthews — sell.conf 0.71
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