MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Portrait of Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez
WSH · P
Change to
Portrait of Juan Morillo
Juan Morillo
AZ · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Andrew Alvarez.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, wins, and saves. Juan Morillo’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Andrew Alvarez wins 3 categories (K, W, SV); Juan Morillo wins 2 (ERA, WHIP).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
92.3
Juan Morillo
98.7
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
11.1%
Juan Morillo
14.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
22.7%
Juan Morillo
28.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
30.0%
Juan Morillo
35.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
40.9%
Juan Morillo
31.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
5.7%
Juan Morillo
3.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
.321
Juan Morillo
.245
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
24.78
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.02
4.12
Juan Morillo
24.78
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.63
2.47
WHIPlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
.9601.50
now 1.28
1.38
Juan Morillo
.9601.50
now 1.08
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
4039.60
now 17
9
Juan Morillo
4039.60
now 30
6
Winshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0001.48
now 1
01
Juan Morillo
.0001.48
now 1
00
Saveshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0002.40
now 1
01
Juan Morillo
.0002.40
now 1
00
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellAndrew Alvarez — hold.conf 0.60
BuyJuan Morillo — buy.conf 0.92
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