MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 27, 2026
Portrait of Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez
WSH · P
Change to
Tommy Nance
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Andrew Alvarez.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, wins, and saves. Tommy Nance’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Andrew Alvarez wins 3 categories (K, W, SV); Tommy Nance wins 2 (ERA, WHIP).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
92.4
Tommy Nance
94.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
12.0%
Tommy Nance
12.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
23.6%
Tommy Nance
24.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
30.9%
Tommy Nance
36.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
44.4%
Tommy Nance
34.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
6.0%
Tommy Nance
6.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
.329
Tommy Nance
.319
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
3.444.53
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.02
4.29
Tommy Nance
3.444.53
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.68
3.71
WHIPlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
1.101.47
now 1.28
1.39
Tommy Nance
1.101.47
now 1.18
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
4038
now 17
32
Tommy Nance
4038
now 26
22
Winshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0004.20
now 1
13
Tommy Nance
.0004.20
now 0
00
Saveshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0004.40
now 1
13
Tommy Nance
.0004.40
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
SellAndrew Alvarez — sell.conf 0.70
Hold · wait & seeTommy Nance — hold.conf 0.50
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