Rest of Season Projection
AntonioCategoryJeff
28K →49
3.63ERA ←3.67
1.25WHIP →1.24
4–9W ←4–8
3–5SV →5–9
Current Season
AntonioCategoryJeff
26K →45
1.30ERA ←6.31
0.89WHIP ←1.75
5W ←4
3SV →5
What Each Player's System Trusts
Antonio Senzatela
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.16 is 1.05 above the ERA — regression coming
Jeff Hoffman
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.19 sits 0.91 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.478 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Antonio Senzatela: 28 K / 3.63 ERA. Jeff Hoffman: 49 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).