Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryShohei
20HR →24
71R ←59
71RBI ←48
3SB →9
.269AVG →.293
Current Season
BenCategoryShohei
17HR ←10
44R ←38
44RBI ←31
2SB →6
.306AVG ←.289
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Shohei Ohtani
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.408, +0.093 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice projects 20 HR / .269 AVG vs Shohei Ohtani's 24 HR / .293 AVG. Ohtani exceeds in both categories. The verdict gap supports acquiring Ohtani over selling Rice.