Rest of Season Projection
BrayanCategoryJorge
5HR →6
43R →66
45RBI ←33
15SB →21
.257AVG →.273
Current Season
BrayanCategoryJorge
4HR4
26R ←22
27RBI ←11
9SB ←7
.293AVG →.316
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brayan Rocchio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.323 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.320 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Jorge Mateo
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.361)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Rocchio projects 15 SB / .257 AVG while Mateo leads 21 SB / .273 AVG. The SB and AVG gaps reflect verdicts: sell on Rocchio, hold on Mateo.