Rest of Season Projection
BrayanCategoryKevin
5HR →13
43R →58
45RBI ←32
15SB ←14
.257AVG →.285
Current Season
BrayanCategoryKevin
4HR ←3
26R →38
27RBI ←21
9SB9
.293AVG ←.285
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brayan Rocchio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.323 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.320 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Kevin McGonigle
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.366, +0.051 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
McGonigle projects for 13 HR / .285 AVG against Rocchio's 5 HR / .257 AVG — a clear 8-HR gap and 28-point AVG edge. Buy McGonigle; sell-high on Rocchio.