Rest of Season Projection
BrennanCategoryGordon
38K ←26
3.68ERA ←3.84
1.24WHIP ←1.26
2–5W →3–9
0SV →1–3
Current Season
BrennanCategoryGordon
18K ←14
3.70ERA →1.80
1.23WHIP →0.90
2W →4
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brennan Bernardino
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.14)
Gordon Graceffo
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.155 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.24 is 3.48 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Bernardino projects 38 K / 3.68 ERA vs Graceffo's 26 K / 3.84 ERA. The strikeout gap (12) and ERA edge favor Bernardino. Hold Bernardino; sell Graceffo before regression.