Rest of Season Projection
BrockCategoryPaul
46K ←32
3.76ERA →3.71
1.26WHIP →1.25
1–3W →2–5
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
BrockCategoryPaul
27K ←16
3.62ERA →3.33
1.39WHIP ←1.44
1W →2
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brock Burke
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.66 is 1.17 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Blackburn
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.06)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Brock Burke: 46 K / 3.76 ERA. Paul Blackburn: 32 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).