Rest of Season Projection
DanielCategoryPaul
35K ←32
3.67ERA ←3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–2W →2–5
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
DanielCategoryPaul
27K ←16
1.93ERA ←3.33
0.99WHIP ←1.44
1W →2
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Daniel Lynch IV
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.81 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Blackburn
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.06)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Daniel Lynch IV: 35 K / 3.67 ERA. Paul Blackburn: 32 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).