Rest of Season Projection
BrooksCategoryRyne
39K →44
3.69ERA ←3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–2W ←1–2
0SV →1–3
Current Season
BrooksCategoryRyne
26K →30
1.61ERA ←5.56
1.25WHIP ←1.76
1W1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brooks Raley
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.39 is 1.97 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryne Stanek
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.91 sits 0.19 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.323 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Brooks Raley: 39 K / 3.69 ERA. Ryne Stanek: 45 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).