Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryParker
95K →118
3.18ERA ←3.23
1.29WHIP →1.22
4–9W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryParker
61K →74
2.50ERA →2.21
1.08WHIP →1.07
4W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Elder
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 0.68 above the ERA — regression coming
Parker Messick
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.23, 0.87 below league — production is earned
Bryce Elder: 95 K / 3.18 ERA. Parker Messick: 118 K / 3.23 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).