Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryRafael
10HR →13
26R →33
13RBI →38
0SB0
.300AVG ←.224
Current Season
BryceCategoryRafael
2HR →7
8R →26
4RBI →30
0SB0
.242AVG →.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Eldridge
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.407)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.375 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Bryce Eldridge: 10 HR / 26 R. Rafael Devers: 13 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).