MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 9, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Ryan Thompson
Ryan Thompson
AZ · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (K); Ryan Thompson wins 1 (W); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.5
Ryan Thompson
91.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
8.8%
Ryan Thompson
9.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
21.9%
Ryan Thompson
18.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
30.2%
Ryan Thompson
35.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
34.0%
Ryan Thompson
34.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
2.0%
Ryan Thompson
3.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.283
Ryan Thompson
.289
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Ryan Thompson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.75
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.50
now 0.60
1.24
Ryan Thompson
.9001.50
now 1.17
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4045.20
now 6
34
Ryan Thompson
4045.20
now 12
15
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0004.20
now 0
00
Ryan Thompson
.0004.20
now 2
13

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeRyan Thompson — hold.conf 0.50
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