Rest of Season Projection
CalebCategoryRyan
34K →37
3.72ERA →3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–4W ←0–0
3–5SV →4–8
Current Season
CalebCategoryRyan
29K ←14
3.81ERA ←6.46
1.15WHIP ←1.89
2W ←0
3SV3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Caleb Kilian
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.222 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.01 is 0.78 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryan Walker
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.12 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Caleb Kilian: 34 K / 3.72 ERA. Ryan Walker: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).