MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Thielbar
Caleb Thielbar
CHC · P
Change to
Portrait of Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Caleb Thielbar.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Riley O'Brien’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Caleb Thielbar wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Riley O'Brien wins 1 (SV); 2 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Thielbar
93.3
Riley O'Brien
97.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Thielbar
14.6%
Riley O'Brien
11.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Thielbar
29.2%
Riley O'Brien
22.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Thielbar
36.5%
Riley O'Brien
28.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Thielbar
39.8%
Riley O'Brien
41.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Thielbar
11.0%
Riley O'Brien
7.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Thielbar
.328
Riley O'Brien
.343
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Thielbar
2.145.28
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.84
3.70
Riley O'Brien
2.145.28
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.20
4.58
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Thielbar
.9001.51
now 1.34
1.24
Riley O'Brien
.9001.51
now 0.99
1.36

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Thielbar
4035.80
now 15
5
Riley O'Brien
4035.80
now 27
5
Winshigher is better
Caleb Thielbar
.0004.20
now 2
01
Riley O'Brien
.0004.20
now 3
01
Saveshigher is better
Caleb Thielbar
.00019.60
now 2
01
Riley O'Brien
.00019.60
now 14
23
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Thielbar — hold.conf 0.50
SellRiley O'Brien — sell.conf 0.83
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